We know what you are going to say : we’ve been writing a lot about this war, but now we are talking about the Russian war impact on Europe, which is a different angle.
Besides, we honestly believe that current events are shaping the future.
What will the relationship be with Russia, China, USA, within Europe, be in a few years ?
If Ukraine joins Europe, it would be for political reasons. Their economy was not and will not be ready: what will be the impact on Europe’s economy ? If it does not, then what ? Perhaps the decision will never be made, as it was with Türkiye (yes, they changed name so Americans wouldn’t confuse them with the 🦃) ?
The impact on policies and governments, of refugees in countries having to deal with large numbers of refugees, such as the Czech Republic or Poland ?
How many refugees will be able to return to their homes and when ?
How long will Europe stay united with inflation roaring and inflation looming ?
What will happen to Ukraine, even if they win the war, dealing with the trauma of war, loss, grief, and uprooting.
We don’t have any answers to these questions (sorry), but here are a few signs we’ve noted lately.
PS: sorry for the HUGE intro, the article was supposed to be short, only 549 words without the intro.
2nd PS: let us know if we say anything incorrect or offend anyone, especially our Ukrainian, Transnitrian, Russian subscribers.
Yes, we have at least one known Transnitrian reader, that’s how international we are !
Without surprise to anyone, military budgets have increased a lot:
- France increased the 2023 budget budget to €44 billion
- UK increased the 2023 budget to €56 billion
- Belgium will add €10 billion by 2030, up from €5 billion in 2020.
- Germany will increase to reach between €70 billion and €80 billion. Making it the first military budget in Europe, first time since… let’s not talk about that.
- All European states combined: €209 billions increase in the next few years.
Two new countries are joining NATO: Sweden and Finland.
They had to negotiate with 🦃. The issue was linked to Kurds, specifically two groups; the PKK and the YPG. Both are considered terrorists by Türkiye, the US and even Europe, but not by Sweden and Finland.
Both countries even host refugees/terrorists and imposed a gun embargo after Türkiye’s offensive on Kurds in Syria, “operation peace spring”.
Reminds you of something ? War is peace, Freedom is slavory, and Ignorance is strength.
Now that they have joined NATO, no more embargo and the PKK and the YPG are terrorists.
Below is a graph from Visual Capitalist, it’s from June so it changed with the Nord Stream’s delivery being reduced to 20% of its capacity.
Unity is falling as fast as gas deliveries. Hungary’s prime minister, Orban, went to Russia to ask for gas. FYI, Hungary also has two nuclear plants being constructed by Rosatom.
They could have chosen the infamous French EPR, but it seems Hungary is not a huge fan of enormous delays and gigantic overspending.
On the other hand, Europe now has the possibility to make gas reduction mandatory this winter. Let’s see how unified we are without gas.
Austria just connected their gas network with the Haidach gas field. The field is located in Austria, but was previously dedicated to Germany. Austria is/was importing 80% of its gas consumption from Russia. Germany is quite unhappy about this.
And they’ll have a big army.
Nop, not discussing that.
Europe’s growth was forecasted at 4.3% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023.
The latest forecast sets the growth at 2.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. Other analysts are predicting -0.3% in 2023 if monetary policy tightens to fight inflation.
Speaking of which… inflation ? It was projected at 2.2% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023.
Again, the forecast now is 8.3% in 2022 and 4.6% in 2023.
Sucks to be us.
Russia? It was supposed to have a GDP contraction of 8.5% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023, but now estimates are “only” 6% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023.
Ukraine? It is anticipated to lose 45% of its GDP.
It is hard to give facts and predictions, Europe now has 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees, plus an additional 7 million refugees within the Ukraine. That means 1 quarter of Ukrainians have left or lost their homes.
This huge movement of people is creating problems, such as how to provide them with assistance ? How to house them ? How to guarantee education to kids ?
It could also be an opportunity for countries with ageing population.
A clear example is how central Europe is struggling to replace the Ukrainian men that left to fight. Poland had 600 000 Ukrainian workers, the Czech Republic 200 000.